Saturday, August 20, 2016

In late 2012, a company commissioned by an unknown source researched the feasibility of launching a cable network that was dedicated to political commentary, or "talk shows with video."   At the time, such only existed as subsets of networks like Fox, CNN, and the other news networks.   The goal of the proposed network would be not to have something for the masses, as Fox and CNN did and do, but to appeal to a certain niche of the population, as online sites Mother Jones and Drudge did and do.  It was decided that such a network would need a flagship show and persona to make it work.  All such well-known personalities and shows were bound to long-term radio exclusive contracts or to other cable networks (i.e. Fox News).     In April of 2013, One America News Network was launched.  OANN has a markedly Conservative slant, but OANN also has news shows and other content.   The network hasn't grown as it wished, but it's available to about 15 million homes, but it has its followers.  The problem is that there are already several established Conservative sources on various networks.  The network appealed to a group that was already saturated by radio, websites, bloggers, news sources, and talk shows on cable TV networks (i.e. Fox).

(The rest is my opinion, and not proven fact, although my beliefs are  being shared by more and more people.)

Enter Donald Trump.  Here was a charismatic entertainer who was an established personality ("The Apprentice") and known to be outspoken and brash.  In other words, here was the flagship personality for a potential flagship network.   Last year, after much advance hinting, "The Donald" decided to launch a presidential bid.  Trump studied the landscape and found his own niche: people who were very active in political discussions (i.e. on Yahoo news comments, Facebook, etc.) and who followed politics closely all day and every day.  While most were Far Right Conservatives by nature, some were converted from moderate Republicans, independents, and even long-time Democrats.   This group typically shared many of the common denominators: easily-influenced, easily angered, male, white, sexist,  racist, bigoted, ethnic hatred for non-European Whites, angry at the government, angry at big business, and generally angry at the world, who believe that the whole world is out to get them and that this world controls what they call "The Liberal Media", who believe themselves to be politically educated, while those who have opposing views are "sheeple" or "Kool Aid drinkers."   While most of these people were already Far-Right Conservatives, there were also many moderate Republicans, independents, and even several longtime Democrats.

So Trump took the biggest issues that appealed to this group.  The main one was illegal immigrants (racism, bigotry, jobs taken for citizens) with Mexico as the target.  ISIS (bigotry), Obama (racism and bigotry), Clinton (sexism), and others.  Trump knew well that such people angered easily and that people in general fed on controversy.  Thus his persona was launched in a Presidential bid.  To get constant media coverage, Trump used the strategy that many celebrities used to keep their name in the media: do something outrageous and often.   Trump knew that he couldn't win the Presidency by being outrageous.  That was never his goal.  His goal was to win the nomination, and to do that, he had to appeal to voters who would turn out for the primaries: in other words his focus group --- those who lived and breathed politics 24/7/365.  He was brash, boorish, crude, and outright nasty (all under the guise of "speaking the truth"), And it worked.  They turned out in droves and gathered him over 13 million votes in the primaries.  The problem, of course, was that 13 million votes are only about 10% of the total voting population on Election Day in a Presidential Election year.  That didn't matter to Trump.  He now had the limelight until Election Day.

Trump then flirted briefly with the idea of appealing to a broader base of voters.  He quickly realized that: 1) He wasn't going to win the election anyway, 2) He'd appear to be faithless to his followers, a "sellout" so to speak, and 3) he'd lose his persona in the process.  Enter Stephen Bannon, the CEO of conservative political site Breitbart.  Bannon convinced Trump to continue as he had been doing: to be brash and controversial and to appear to do as he pleased.   Being removed from the Republican ticket was a possibility,a and that was fine with Trump:  he never wanted to be President anyway.   A candidate who wants to be president does not go around offending most Liberals, most independents, most moderate Republicans, most Latinos/Hispanics, Muslims, blacks, women, and those who believe that a President should have a certain amount of dignity (to be "Presidential"). When those people are removed from the equation, there aren't many voters left, and certainly nowhere near enough to be elected.  The polls are bearing this out: according to most polls, Clinton already has enough Electoral votes to win, even if the current somewhat-close states are excluded from the totals.

But as often stated, being elected wasn't Trump's ambition.   His ambition is to solidify his personality for his fan base.  When Election Day has come and gone, Trump will be planning the next phase: opening his own cable network and radio talk show, and becoming the next Rush Limbaugh type.  I would be surprised if Bannon and Breitbart weren't part of that, and several others will join in.   The niche is already there: Trump has his loyal fan base of about 15 million who nod their heads in unison at everything that comes out of his mouth.

But wait!  Doesn't OANN also have 15 million viewers?  No, OANN is available in 15 million homes, but that doesn't mean that most of the 15 million homes view OANN.  There are roughly 100 million homes that have some form of Pay TV, and Trump's network will probably be available in at least 80% of them, as well as over-the-top services such as Sling, and possibly as an ala-carte streaming service such as a Roku channel, with on-site web streaming likely.  Since Trump's group lives and breathes politics nonstop, his network will have a very dedicated viewership, with steady ratings.  It will make Mr. Trump a lot of money and give him a lot of attention.  Of course, it will come at the expense of the Republican party, hundreds of politicians who will lose because of the party's association with Trump,  and at the expense of the many millions that he's been using with his promises of "Make America Great Again,"   but those things are unimportant to Mr. Trump.


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